Australian Energy Production and Consumption Forecasts

Recently, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics released a forecast report, which conducts mid-term and long-term research and analysis on Australia's energy production and consumption. Each forecast indicator includes the latest energy industry information from the Australian federal and state governments. Factors such as policies and recent developments in the international energy market, combined with the current status of Australia's own energy production, consumption and exports, are comprehensively processed through the E4cast analysis data model established by ABARE researchers. Since the research for this report was conducted under the instruction and funding of the Australian Federal Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, it covers the production and consumption of Australia's major energy products, and aims to provide a basis for the Australian government and energy industry to formulate future policies. The main contents are now reported as follows:

Australian energy products can be divided into five major categories, mainly including coal, gas, uranium, petroleum and hybrid electric energy. Among them, coal includes black coal and lignite; gas includes natural gas, petroleum gas (LPG) and coal gas (CGS); it is worth noting that although Australia’s uranium reserves account for 41% of the world’s, its output ranks first It ranks second in the world, but according to the long-term and consistent policy of the Australian federal government, uranium is not allowed to be used for domestic nuclear power generation and can only be used for export. Hybrid electric energy includes renewable resources such as hydropower, wind power, solar energy, and biomass.

Australia's energy production and consumption mainly depends on the development of the domestic economy. According to the mid-year forecast, Australia's GDP will increase at a rate of 3.1%. From 2003-04 to 2029/30, the forward forecast is that Australia's GDP will grow at a rate of 3.1%. The value has slowed down to a growth rate of 3%. Therefore, Australia's energy production and consumption in general have also shown a steady upward trend.

1. Overview of Australia’s energy production, consumption and exports

Australia's overall energy production (excluding uranium) is expected to double from 2003-04 to 2029-30, reaching 22,300PJ*, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%. Coal is the main body of Australia's energy products and its output accounts for total energy production. 68%, followed by natural gas, accounting for about 20% of total energy production, oil ranked third, about 5%, and finally hybrid electric energy.

(PJ*, Petajoule, equivalent to the heat energy generated by 43,000 tons of black coal or 2.9 million liters of gasoline)

Australia's energy consumption will increase by 63% from 2003/4 to 2029/30, reaching 8,728 PJ, with an annual growth rate of 1.9%. The main consuming industry is electricity, accounting for 46% of Australia's total energy consumption, followed by the transportation industry. , accounting for 24%, with manufacturing and construction ranking third.

As a net exporter of energy products, Australia's domestic energy consumption currently accounts for only 48% of its total energy production (excluding uranium), and the remaining 52% is exported. The main export products are black coal and liquefied natural gas. As the demand for energy products in the international market increases, Australia's energy exports tend to rise. By 2030, Australia's energy export proportion will increase from the current 52% to 61%.

2. Australian coal production, export and consumption forecast

Australia's proven coal reserves are approximately 100 billion tons, and its annual production was 267 million tons in 2003/4. Lignite reserves are 78 billion tons, compared with 67 million tons in 2003/4. Coal is the largest energy product in Australia. Calculated in energy measurement units (PJ), its output accounts for 68% of the entire Australian energy output. Australia's coal production will increase year by year in the future, between 2003/4 and 2029/30. , the annual growth rate will remain at around 2.6%, and production volume will reach 517 million tons in 2029/30.

Australia's coal exports account for 80% of Australia's total energy exports. The export volume is predicted to have an annual growth rate of 2.8% between 2003/4 and 2029/30, which will increase from the current 220 million tons to 4.43 in 2029/30. Around 100 million tons, the proportion of exports in Australia's total energy exports will increase from 80% to 84%.

Australia's coal consumption accounts for 42% of Australia's total energy consumption, mainly used for power generation. According to the mid-term forecast from 2003/4 to 2009/10, Australia's coal consumption will increase from 1,570PJ to 1,686PJ, with an annual growth rate of 1.2%, lignite increased from 679PJ to 709PJ during this period, with an annual growth rate of 0.7%; according to the forward forecast from 2003/04 to 2029/30, the annual growth rate of black coal is 1.4%, and that of lignite is 0.9%. In 2029/ The output in 30 years reached 2,248PJ and 857PJ respectively.

3. Australian natural gas production, consumption and export forecasts

Australia's natural gas reserves are approximately 169,000 PJ, 97% of which are distributed in the northwest coastal basin, and 7% in the Gippsland Basin of eastern Victoria. In 2003/4, natural gas production was 1,600 PJ. According to the mid-term forecast for 2009/10, the production will reach 2,550 PJ, with an annual growth rate of 10.6%; according to the forward forecast from 2003/04 to 2029/30, the annual growth rate is 6.3 %, the output in 2029/30 will reach 5,183PJ.

Australia's natural gas consumption has an annual growth rate of 4.5% from 2003/4 to 2009/10, and a forward rate (2003/04 to 2029/30) of 2.8%. The annual consumption in 2009/10 and 2029/30 respectively reached 1,367 PJ and 2,136PJ, the forward consumption has nearly doubled compared with 1,048PJ in 2003/4. Australia's forward consumption of natural gas accounted for 32% of Australia's total energy consumption growth during the same period, and its proportion of Australia's energy increased from 20% to 25%.

Australia's export volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is approximately 11.7 million tons per year. In the mid-term period from 2003/4 to 2009/10, Australia's LNG export volume will increase by 19% to 19 million tons. The increase in production will mainly come from the newly built Darwin LNG plant and the fifth phase of the Northwest Continental Shelf Project. According to the forward forecast from 2003/04 to 2029/30, Australia's LNG exports will have an annual growth rate of 8.2%, with export volume reaching 62 million tons.

4. Production, consumption, import and export forecasts of petroleum products

Australia's proven oil is distributed in four continental shelf basins along the coast, with abundant reserves and a recoverable volume of more than 1.1 billion barrels. At the current production rate of 35 billion liters per year, the reserves in the four basins alone will take 30 years to be exploited. At the same time, preliminary exploration shows that there are still about 40 basins along the coast of Australia that contain oil, and the specific reserves need to be further explored. Australia's oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in 2003/4 was 1,154PJ. In the long term, production will not change much and will still be 1,218PJ in 2029/30.

Although Australia has huge potential oil reserves, it is currently a net oil importer. In 2003/4, Australia's oil and liquefied petroleum gas production accounted for only 64% of Australia's total liquid energy consumption. With the development of two new oil fields in the Carnarvon Basin, production in 2007/8 will account for 64% of Australia's total liquid energy consumption. 69%, but due to the new field's geographical proximity to Asia, most of the 100,000 barrels per day of production will be exported. According to the forward forecast from 2003/04 to 2029/30, Australia's oil consumption will reach 3,000PJ in 2029/30, and the transportation industry will account for more than 90% of the consumption. By then, oil imports will increase from 261PJ to 835PJ. The proportion of total liquefied energy imports will increase from 22% to 51%.

5. Production Forecast of Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is a goal strongly promoted by the Australian government's energy policy. According to the long-term forecast from 2003/04 to 2029/30, the annual growth rate of renewable energy will reach 2.4%. Hydropower accounted for 90% of renewable energy generation, with an annual growth rate of 0.4% during this period; wind power had an annual growth rate of 8%, accounting for 42% of the increase in renewable energy generation during this period, and biomass (bagasse, waste wood and mixtures), the annual growth rate of power generation is also 8%, accounting for 35% of the increase in renewable energy power generation during this period.

6. Energy saving and environmental protection in energy consumption forecasting

In the energy consumption forecast, three energy policies of the Australian federal and state governments are included in the analysis model. They are the "Australian Mandatory Renewable Energy Target Plan" (MRET), Queensland's "Gas Power Plan" and New South Wales "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards Plan".

MRET is the federal government's energy-saving policy, which requires the country to use renewable energy to provide 9.5 million megawatt hours of power in the ten years from 2000 to 2010. In 2004, 25% of the project target has been achieved through solar water heaters, and the remaining renewable energy sources will include wind power and biomass power.