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The Impact of Indonesian Coal on the Coal Market is gradually Expanding
In the context of the international economic downturn, the coal industry as a whole is experiencing a serious downward trend. However, in order to help the coal industry get out of trouble, my country's unique 276 working day policy has forced the suppression of domestic coal production capacity and output, which has benefited foreign imports in disguise. Coal market, so how much impact will the imported coal market have?China's thermal coal is mainly imported from Indonesia and Australia, and anthracite coal imported from North Korea is mainly used for sintering. The increase in North Korean anthracite coal is very limited. In addition, China's economic sanctions against North Korea have affected the import of North Korean anthracite coal. In the first half of the year, the import volume declined. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first half of 2016, a total of 8.6274 million tons of North Korean anthracite coal were imported, compared with 9.5204 million tons from January to June 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 9.38%.
The situation in Australia this year is not optimistic either, with limited growth. According to data, the export increase this year is only 4 million tons, of which 1.5 million tons come from Queensland, which is rich in coking coal resources, and the other 2.5 million tons come from New South Wales, which is rich in thermal coal.
Although other thermal coal exporting countries, such as South Africa, the United States, and Colombia, have abundant production, they are not ideal choices considering the high import costs. The price difference between domestic and foreign coal prices has not yet attracted these thermal coal exporting countries to export thermal coal to China.
The only country left is Indonesia. According to data, Indonesia's coal production decreased by 20 million tons in the first half of this year. However, coincidentally, Indonesia's coal exports also decreased by 20 million tons. What does the 20 million tons of data mean? What does it mean about international coal demand? The decline has also suffered a heavy blow to Indonesia's mineral trade, and it has to follow the international mainstream to reduce production.
Most of Indonesian lignite is famous for its low calorie and low sulfur content. As can be seen from the above table, Indonesian coal occupies a certain market in southern cities such as Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hainan, and Guangxi, which are increasingly paying attention to environmental protection. However, It is not very popular in northern markets. It is worth noting that Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Chongqing started purchasing Indonesian coal this year, and Liaoning and Heilongjiang’s purchases are larger than Chongqing’s, indicating that the impact of Indonesian coal has gradually expanded; Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Henan Indonesian coal Import volume increased significantly year-on-year.
From 2009 to 2016, the proportion of coal power generation in coastal provinces and cities in the national coal power generation gradually declined. The main reasons for this situation are the increase in new energy sources such as hydropower and nuclear power, as well as the transmission of coal-fired power generation from inland provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang to eastern provinces through UHV lines. Compared with train and car transportation, this is greatly Reduced power generation costs.
Except for Jiangsu, Shandong, Beijing, and Heilongjiang, the cumulative power generation of other provinces and cities in the first half of 2016 is not the highest value in recent years. The red area value is the peak value of the cumulative power generation of thermal power in the first half of the year from 2009 to mid-2016. . Among Jiangsu, Shandong, Beijing and Heilongjiang, in the first half of this year, except for Shandong Province, the import volume of Indonesian coal was relatively stable, with a slight increase, and the other three provinces and cities all experienced relatively substantial growth.
On the whole, Indonesian coal imports in Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Qinghai and other provinces have declined year-on-year. Analysis believes that this year’s rainfall is more and the impact of hydropower shocks is greater; Indonesian coal imports in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Henan have increased year-on-year. The import volume of Indonesian coal in Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Chongqing has grown from scratch to achieve breakthroughs, which further proves that the impact of Indonesian coal is gradually expanding.
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