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The COVID-19 Pandemic may Accelerate the Oil Revenue Crisis for most African Countries
Recently, the Center for Analysis, Forecasting and Strategic Studies (CAPS) under the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a report titled "The Pangolin Effect: Is Africa about to face a storm?" The report pessimistically predicts that most African governments will go bankrupt under the COVID-19 pandemic. The report believes that the crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic may be an "unbearable crisis" for Africa. It defines the Sahel countries and Central African countries as "fragile" and "endless" regimes respectively, pointing out that the epidemic may not only cause turmoil in the above two types of countries, but also trigger the collapse of the regime.For West African countries, quarantine measures will break the fragile balance of the informal economy, which is essential to maintaining the social contract. For Central African countries, "the impact of the epidemic may accelerate the oil revenue crisis in countries such as Cameroon, Gabon and Congo (Brazzaville), which is the core of the local social balance. The slowdown in production under the epidemic will lead to the collapse of oil prices, which are already out of touch with demand, and will also stimulate oil industry operators led by Total to consider withdrawing from these countries." In both cases, the COVID-19 pandemic may constitute an economic factor that triggers the process of political change.
The report believes that in general, the medical coverage rate in African countries is almost negligible, and the national health system is basically saturated. "The government's inability to protect its people will be exposed. The government that is already unable to cope with the economic, political and security crises will face the final judgment of the people." CAPS called for "prejudgment of the situation where the government loses its credibility and urgent support for reliable authorities that may appear in other forms in Africa, so as to establish a dialogue with the people and respond to the political crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa." In fact, French diplomatic experts have no intention of saving the current political order, but call for "finding other spokespersons in Africa to bear the political consequences of this crisis." As the cradle of young French intellectuals and diplomats, CAPS's suggestions seem to draw a line with the conservatives in the French diplomatic community, who are accustomed to the status quo and gradual changes in Africa.
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