EIA: Global Energy Demand will Rise by Nearly 60% in the Next 20 Years
On the 21st, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) under the U.S. Department of Energy released the "2007 World Energy Outlook" report. The report predicts that although international oil prices continue to rise, the growth rate of demand is still difficult to contain; only after 2015 will the global demand for oil and other liquid fuels slow down due to high prices. Global energy demand will increase by 57% by 2030 compared with 2004. Due to market concerns that the U.S. gasoline supply will be unable to meet the summer oil consumption peak and that Nigeria's oil production continues to be turbulent, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply on the 21st, and the retail price of gasoline in the United States reached a new high.
Daily demand for crude oil will reach 118 million barrels in 2030
The report predicts that by 2030, global daily demand for oil and other liquid fuels will reach 118 million barrels, compared with 83 million barrels in 2004. This means that oil-producing countries must increase their crude oil production by 35 million barrels per day. It is expected that OPEC members will be able to increase production by 21 million barrels per day, and the remaining gap will have to be made up by non-OPEC oil-producing countries. Global consumption of crude oil and petroleum products is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.4%.
The report pointed out that the United States is still the world's largest energy consumer, and the energy demand growth rate of OECD member countries will be lower than that of developing countries due to factors such as industrial transfer.
The report predicts that by 2030, coal will become the fastest-growing energy source in the world, with annual demand growth reaching 2.2%; global nuclear power generation will increase from 368 billion watts in 2004 to 481 billion watts; global carbon dioxide emissions will reach 2015. The annual consumption will increase from 26.9 billion tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion tons, and will reach 42.9 billion tons in 2030.
Oil prices soar, U.S. gasoline retail prices hit new highs
On the same day, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.33 per barrel to close at $66.27. North Sea Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.07 a barrel to close at $70.49 on the International Petroleum Exchange in London.
AAA estimates that 38.8 million Americans will drive on vacation this weekend, an increase of 1.7% from the same period last year. Affected by this, the average retail price of gasoline in the United States hit a new high that day, reaching $3.196 per gallon.
Another factor in rising oil prices comes from Nigeria. There were reports on the 21st that unidentified militants attacked the French oil company Total's factory in Nigeria. In addition, the Nigerian Petroleum Union said on the 20th that it would go on strike this week in order to protest the acquisition of two state-owned oil refineries by private companies.
On the 21st, the price of gasoline futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.64 cents per gallon to close at $2.4013. Heating oil futures for June delivery rose 3.57 cents per gallon to settle at $1.9509. Natural gas futures for June delivery fell 3.1 cents to settle at $7.913 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Previously, U.S. Energy Information Administration Administrator Caruso said that OPEC should increase production before the organization's next meeting in September. He expects that as Nigeria's oil production declines, market supply will be further tight. Caruso also predicted that as Nigeria's oil production declines, the market supply will be further tightened, and the average weekly gasoline price in the United States should hit a new high.
In order to reduce the high level of global inventories, OPEC has reduced crude oil production by 1.7 million barrels per day since November 2006; at that time, huge inventories continued to put downward pressure on oil prices.
OPEC said in March 2007 that it agreed to stabilize production at current levels before the agency meets again on September 11. Some market analysts pointed out that OPEC may have to take action sooner, as strong summer demand is expected to drive up oil prices and further shrink inventory.
Caruso said on the sidelines of an energy conference that unresolved political issues and ongoing violence in West Africa have worsened already tight oil production and inventory conditions.
Caruso said that OPEC obviously should not wait until the next regular meeting to make a decision to increase production.
