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U.S. Coal Exports may Hit a Five-year High (International Coal Market)
Recently, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), S&P Global Platts and many other institutions show that U.S. coal exports are showing a "vibrant" scene this year. U.S. coal exports from January to August increased by 29.8% compared with the same period last year, the annual export volume is expected to hit a new high since 2012.Data from S&P Global Platts shows that as of August, total coal exports from the United States this year have reached 70.5 million tons, an increase of 29.8% compared with the same period last year. Based on this, the total export volume this year is expected to reach 105.7 million tons, the highest level since 2012.
Looking at the US coal export data in recent years, it reached a peak of 114.2 million metric tons in 2012 and has been declining since then. This year, however, things have changed.
The latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that U.S. coal exports in August this year were 9.1 million tons, an increase of 5.5% from July of the same year and an increase of 17.3% from the same period last year.
According to a report released by the EIA, in the second quarter of this year, U.S. coal exports increased by 13.4% from the first quarter, reaching 28.03 million tons. Among them, the total export volume of thermal coal was approximately 12.61 million tons, an increase of 12.8% from the first quarter; the total export volume of metallurgical coal was approximately 15.33 million tons, an increase of 13.9% from the first quarter.
S&P Global Platts analysis pointed out that in the first eight months of this year, the total export volume of U.S. metallurgical coal was 38.3 million tons, an increase of 20.6% from the same period last year. If the current trend is maintained, the annual export volume of metallurgical coal will also reach a record high. A new high in the past five years.
Industry analysts pointed out that the reason for the increase in U.S. coal exports is that the current global coal supply is in short supply. Coal demand in many countries and regions has increased to varying degrees. More and more countries are turning their attention to the United States, which in turn increases increased U.S. coal exports.
Since the shale revolution, a large amount of coal consumption in the United States has been replaced by cheap natural gas. Therefore, although exports have increased, the total domestic coal production and consumption in the United States have declined.
According to EIA statistics, as of 2017, the number of states in the United States where coal is the main source of power generation has dropped from 28 in 2007 to 18. With the further growth of natural gas power generation, the amount of coal power generation in the United States may continue to decrease in the future.
EIA data shows that in the second quarter of this year, total coal consumption in the United States was 156.9 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% from the first quarter, and a decrease of approximately 6% from the same period in 2017. Among them, electricity consumption accounts for approximately 92.1% of total coal consumption in the United States. According to EIA estimates, coal power generation will account for 28% of total U.S. power generation this year, down from 30% in 2017, and will further drop to 27% in 2019.
At the same time, U.S. domestic coal production has also declined. EIA data shows that total U.S. coal production in the second quarter of this year was approximately 164 million tons, a decrease of approximately 3.7% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 3.4% from the same period last year. Among them, coal production in the western region of the United States accounted for 52.3% of the total coal production in the United States, a decrease of 5.5% compared with the same period last year.
In addition, in the second quarter of this year, the total coal inventory in the United States dropped from 140 million tons at the end of the first quarter to 134 million tons, a decrease of 4.6%. Among them, the inventory of coal for power generation fell to 110 million tons from 112 million tons at the end of the first quarter, which was the sixth consecutive decline since the end of the fourth quarter of 2016.
Many U.S. media believe that the continued growth of coal exports has brought vitality to the U.S. coal industry. Among them, rising demand in Asia has added strong impetus to U.S. coal exports.
Data from S&P Global Platts shows that in August this year, the monthly export volume of U.S. metallurgical coal reached 5.15 million tons, an increase of 19.1% from July and an increase of 9.3% from the same period last year.
It is reported that the main export destination of U.S. metallurgical coal is the Netherlands. The export volume in August this year was approximately 977,000 tons, a significant increase from the 275,000 tons in the same period last year. There are also Brazil and Japan, ranking second and third respectively. Among them, Brazil imported 539,900 tons of U.S. metallurgical coal in August this year, an increase of about 10% compared with the same period last year; Japan imported 488,200 tons of U.S. metallurgical coal in August, a significant increase from 45,800 tons in the same period last year.
Looking at the full-year situation, S&P Global Platts predicts that Brazil, India, and the Netherlands will be the top three export destinations for metallurgical coal in the United States. Among them, India's total imports of metallurgical coal from the United States will increase from 2.29 million tons last year. to 4.14 million tons.
At the same time, the largest export destination of bituminous coal from the United States in August was India, with monthly export volume of approximately 797,000 tons, an increase of approximately 26.3% over the same period last year; followed by Japan, with imports of bituminous coal from the United States rising from 124,000 tons in 2017 to 379,000 tons. Ton.
In addition, South Korea is the largest importer of sub-bituminous coal from the United States, followed by Mexico and Japan. Among them, South Korea imported approximately 453,000 tons of U.S. sub-bituminous coal in August, basically the same as last year; while Japan imported approximately 30,400 tons of U.S. sub-bituminous coal in August this year, but did not import this type of coal from the United States in the same period last year.
"Forbes" magazine wrote an article stating that in order to further develop the economy, demand for coal in Asia may continue to grow. For example, India needs more coal to increase power generation and improve people's lives. Therefore, coal will remain in the market for a long time. Asia's energy sector occupies an important position.
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