Oil Security Factors Reappear, Oil Prices Return to $60

Crude oil futures prices rebounded this week and basically showed a trend of range oscillation. Due to the impact of inventory factors, the rebound in futures prices has been suppressed to a certain extent. However, the attack on the Saudi refinery on Friday prompted futures prices to rise sharply, indicating that the market is still very concerned about oil security factors. Finally, the main April contract closed at $62.75, an increase of $3 from last week. Positions fell slightly, at around 890,000 lots.

Shanghai fuel oil oscillated lower this week. Due to the impact of the continued decline of crude oil, Shanghai oil lost effective support, resulting in a continuous downward trend in future prices. However, the futures price stopped falling and stabilized at the 3300 line due to the support of spot prices, indicating that the bullish atmosphere in the short-term market still exists, and Shanghai oil will maintain a strong trend.

According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange's weekly warehouse receipt report, Shanghai's current fuel oil inventory is basically around 120,000 tons. Although this level is currently lower than the highest level of 150,000 tons, since it is not the peak season for fuel oil demand and domestic fuel oil positions are always at a low level, intraday short-term trading is at an absolutely dominant low level. Therefore, domestic fuel oil futures inventories are at a relatively high level, which will obviously have a certain adverse impact on futures price trends. As for U.S. crude oil inventories, the continued increase in inventories has limited the rebound in crude oil futures prices. Although tensions in Iran and Nigeria have caused some concerns about supply in the market, the possibility of large-scale supply disruptions in these two countries in the short term is expected to be limited. However, the weekend suicide bombing attack on the Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest, obviously reactivated the market's tight nerves, and crude oil futures prices rebounded sharply by more than $2 on Friday.

As Singapore's spot prices have maintained a relatively strong trend recently, although its inventories are not at a low level, the price still ignored the sharp decline in crude oil and followed the decline. The fluctuations in spot prices always present a situation of alternating sharp increases and slight decreases, indicating that the spot trend in Singapore is relatively strong. It is precisely because of the strength of Singapore's spot goods that domestic import costs have always been high. Although the current price has long been higher than what the market can bear and market demand is limited, it is precisely because the domestic spot price continues to remain at a high level that the domestic fuel oil futures price maintains a strong trend and maintains a good resistance to the decline of crude oil. sex. The first-line support of Shanghai Oil 3300 is precisely supported by the spot transaction price.

In the later trend, crude oil will continue to maintain a oscillating trend, and oil security and inventory will become important factors influencing the trend of oil prices. In terms of fuel oil, it is unlikely that there will be another sharp decline in the short term, so buy in moderation on dips.