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U.S. Coal Production Expected to Fall 17% in Fourth Quarter
According to S&P Global Platts, the latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that U.S. coal production in the fourth quarter will fall 17% from the same period last year.The report predicts that total U.S. coal production will fall to 159 million tons in the last three months of this year, a decrease of 34 million tons from the fourth quarter of 2018. The report said that falling coal demand, bankruptcies, ownership changes and mine closures have led to a volatile production environment in the western coal region of the United States, especially the Powder River Basin.
The EIA data also showed that total U.S. coal production this year is expected to reach 679.3 million tons, an increase from the 673.9 million tons it predicted in September, but the production forecast for 2020 has fallen to 603 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 617.3 million tons.
According to EIA forecasts, annual production of coal producers in the western United States will fall 11.6% to 369.7 million tons this year; coal mines in the interior will reduce production by 8.5% to a total of 125.5 million tons, while annual production of coal producers in Appalachia will fall 7.9% to 184.2 million tons.
In addition, due to falling demand in the Atlantic Basin, oversupply of coal in Eastern Europe and lack of access to Asian markets at West Coast coal terminals, EIA's forecast for coal exports in 2020 fell 12% from September to 75 million tons. EIA predicts that the United States will export 91.8 million tons of coal this year, compared with 116 million tons in 2018.
At the same time, according to EIA forecasts, the United States will see the largest decline in thermal coal exports this year, at 40.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%; metallurgical coal exports will be 51 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%. It is estimated that in 2020, the United States will export 41.9 million tons of coking coal, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, and thermal coal exports will be 33.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%.
In addition, the United States' coal consumption will drop to 596 million tons this year and further to 544 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25% and 22% of the United States' electricity generation, respectively.
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