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Oil Prices Continue to be Under Pressure, Plunged another 4.2% on Monday
According to early morning news on December 9, on Monday, investors expected that the oversupply situation in the global crude oil market would continue to exist in the first half of 2015, causing oil prices to continue to be under pressure. The main crude oil contract once again reached a five-year low and closed down in on-site trading. at $63.05 per barrel.The main crude oil contract for January on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.79 on Monday to close at $63.05 a barrel, a decrease of 4.2%. This is the lowest closing price since July 16, 2009 for the main contract. Compared with the 1.5% drop of the contract last Friday, it has further declined from the lowest closing price since July 29, 2009.
As the global benchmark, the January contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange also fell by US$2.88 on Monday to close at US$66.19 per barrel, a decrease of 4.2%. This is the lowest closing price for the main contract since September 29, 2009.
Market analysts remain largely bearish on oil prices. Tim Evans, an expert on energy futures at Citigroup, pointed out that the latest report on U.S. drilling conditions and revised Japanese GDP data severely hurt market sentiment on Monday.
Tim Evans wrote in a client report on Monday, "The global oil market is continuing its downward price trend, and it is widely recognized that the Baker Hughes report on Friday confirmed that although oil prices continue to fall, the U.S. After the reality that the number of drilling rigs continues to grow, the spot market will not soon return to a balanced situation of supply and demand." He pointed out that "the downward revision of Japan's economic growth rate, concerns about slowing growth in China and the euro zone are also affecting market sentiment. Somewhat suppressed.”
Japanese government data showed that the country's economic contraction in the third quarter may be more severe than previously estimated, with the growth rate for the quarter revised from an initial value of minus 1.6% to minus 1.9%. After shrinking by 6.7% in the second quarter, Japan's economy has officially entered recession.
Data released by China on Monday pointed out that exports increased by only 4.7% in November, which was far lower than the average economist's expectation of 8% growth and 11.6% performance in October; imports even unexpectedly fell by 6.7%, which was in line with the average growth rate of 8%. Market expectations for growth of 3% ran counter to expectations. Although crude oil imports in November increased by 7.9% year-on-year to 25.41 million barrels, the new data is still considered to show that the world's second largest economy and the largest consumer of raw materials is suffering from slow global economic growth and domestic The problem of insufficient demand.
The German government reported that industrial output grew by only 0.2% in October, falling short of economists' average forecast of 0.3%. The report also revised the September data down to a growth of 1.1% from the previous growth of 1.4%.
In a report completed on December 5, Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for the average price of the Brent crude oil contract in 2015, saying that the average price of the international benchmark contract will be as low as 1 per cent in the second quarter of 2015. Barrel $43. Analysts Adam Longson and Elizabeth Volynsky reported that without OPEC intervention, "there is a risk that the market will become unbalanced and peak oversupply in 2015." It will happen in the second quarter of 2015. Oil prices will fall in the first half of 2015, but we don't think there will be the same tension as in previous crises."
Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity market strategy at BNP Paribas, said simulations based on different scenarios of tight supply and strong demand show that global crude oil inventories will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2015 to 200 barrels per day. Thousands of barrels. He also pointed out that in the best possible scenario, the global crude oil balance situation will improve in the second half of 2015.
A report from KBC Energy Economics stated that there is still a problem of unsold Nigerian crude oil in the spot market. With the February batches set to enter the market in two weeks, less than 10% of the batches shipped in January 2015 were sold. A third was sold. Oversupply of West African crude is an indicator of crude demand in the Atlantic region, and unsold batches have weighed on Brent contract prices throughout 2014, the report said.
The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency will all release monthly crude oil market reports later this week, which are believed to provide more information on the current status of global crude oil supply and demand.
In other energy products, the January formula gasoline contract fell 6 cents on Monday to close at $1.71 per gallon, a drop of more than 3%; the January distillate fuel oil contract price fell 5.29 cents over the same period, closing at $2.05.49 per gallon.
The January natural gas contract price fell 20.7 cents on Monday to close at $3.595 per million British thermal units. The contract had just ended its six-day losing streak on Friday.
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