Forecast Analysis of Japanese Nuclear Power Generation and Energy Crisis

Yesterday, when Emperor Akihito of Japan appeared at the National Theater in Chiyoda District, Tokyo, to participate in the "Memorial Ceremony on the 1st Anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake" held by the Japanese government, the Japanese people in the venue and in front of the TV still had mixed feelings. They couldn't help but Recalling this special moment for the Japanese people at 2:46 pm on March 11, 2011, this is an unforgettable moment for many Japanese people. From this moment on, Japan began to experience one of the most serious and complex disasters in history. Last year, the Great East Japan Earthquake and the tsunami caused by the earthquake caused a total of 16,140 deaths, 3,123 missing people, and more than 120,000 houses were completely destroyed.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda delivered a speech at yesterday's memorial ceremony. On behalf of the Japanese government, he made three major oaths to the people, emphasizing that he would "complete the recovery of the disaster area as soon as possible", "learn and pass on the lessons of the earthquake", and "never forget the gratitude for mutual assistance", and We call on all citizens to work together to complete the historical mission of "Japan's rebirth" through post-disaster recovery. However, Nakanoda also said in his speech: "The battle against the nuclear power plant accident is not over yet." At the same time, the "denuclear electrification" project born in the shadow of the nuclear crisis will not only have a profound impact on Japan's energy situation, but also It will also have a huge impact on Japan's economy and people's livelihood.

The outbreak of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident caused Fukushima Prefecture to suffer a "catastrophe." Although the government has designated a 20-kilometer warning zone, outside the warning zone, many residents still choose to leave their homes where they have lived for many years. According to statistics from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, the net population outflow from Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 reached 31,381 people.

The day after the hydrogen explosion occurred in the No. 1 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, thousands of foreigners living in Japan crowded the Immigration Bureau. They all went to apply for "re-entry permits" so that they could return home and wait for the situation in Japan to improve. I can go back to Japan again. The reporter still clearly remembers that the crowded hall was eerily quiet. Everyone was watching the latest news about the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant on the TV news screen. For Japanese people, the haze of nuclear power accidents will be serious, and this is the main reason why every reactor in Japan that has entered regular maintenance has not been turned on again since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident last year.

There are 17 nuclear power plants in Japan with a total of 54 reactors (one is also used for research and development testing). Only 2 are still in operation. The proportion of nuclear power generation in Japan's total power generation has also changed from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The previous nearly 30% dropped to 4.3%. If nothing goes wrong, the remaining two reactors that will face regular inspections at the end of April will not be allowed to be used again. By then, Japan's nuclear power generation will return to zero, and at the same time, thermal power generation will The proportion is more than 80%. It can be said that Japan’s “denuclearization and electrification” project has already begun.

In fact, nuclear power once had high expectations from the Japanese government. According to the "Target Power Supply Plan for 2030" announced by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in 2010, the Japanese government originally planned to build 14 more reactors before 2030, doubling nuclear power generation to 536.6 billion kilowatts, close to nearly half of Japan's total power generation. half. But now, this plan is no more than a piece of waste paper.

The comprehensive "ban" on nuclear power in Japan is bound to test Japan's future energy policy and further affect the energy market in Asia and the world. According to a report released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on the 8th, in order to fill the power generation gap with thermal power generation, Japan’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) surged 12.2% last year compared with 2010, reaching 78.53 million tons, the highest in history, and it paid for this The approximately 4.8 trillion yen also caused Japan to return to a trade deficit after 31 years.

Malaysia, Australia, and Indonesia are Japan’s largest sources of LNG imports, accounting for about half of total imports. However, in order to ensure stable supply in the future, Japan is also actively seeking other import sources around the world.

Since the market foresees that Japan will have high demand for resources such as liquefied natural gas for a considerable period of time, it has also driven up the price of related resources, and is ultimately reflected in Japan's domestic electricity prices. According to Japanese media reports, Tokyo Electric Power Company has applied to the Japanese government to increase the electricity price for household electricity by 10%. Once the application is approved, it will be implemented in July this year, while the electricity price for corporate electricity will increase by 17% in April. %, and at the same time, the price of natural gas will also rise to a certain extent.

The rise in the cost of living and production will undoubtedly further worsen the Japanese economy. Labor-intensive companies that are less able to withstand cost pressures have already begun to move overseas, and the transferred job opportunities will inevitably make Japan's overall employment situation even worse. As for the lives of ordinary people, the rise in electricity and natural gas prices will undoubtedly increase their consumption pressure. Unfortunately, the solutions that the Noda cabinet tried to find to deal with the excessive government debt were not satisfactory.