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Will Obama's New Energy Deal Succeed?
The main purpose of Obama's energy plan is to get rid of the United States' dependence on fossil fuels and instead seek to develop new renewable resources. The plan sets ambitious goals: improve energy efficiency, control carbon dioxide emissions through total control and carbon emissions trading, transform automobile internal combustion engines, focus on the development of plug-in hybrid vehicles, and increase the use of renewable energy in power generation and transportation. proportion etc.Over the past four decades, nearly every U.S. president has sought energy independence in one way or another. In the 1970s, President Nixon proposed in his inauguration declaration to produce almost pollution-free cars within five years and promised to achieve energy independence by 1980. Ford's Independence Blueprint, which pointed to achieving energy self-sufficiency by 1985 and called its plan "the moral equivalent of war," set a goal in 1979 of reducing oil imports over the next decade. half, or 4.4 million barrels per day, and established CAFE standards (ie, automobile fuel efficiency), launching a plan to reinvent the automobile. Clinton announced the implementation of a new generation vehicle cooperation project, and George W. Bush proposed research projects to fund hydrogen fuel vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Although successive U.S. governments have made various efforts in energy, they did not achieve zero oil imports in 1980 or 1985 as claimed. On the contrary, they increased to 12.5 million barrels per day in 2007. Energy independence has not been achieved due to technical, economic, political and other reasons. As the population grew, more cars were purchased per household than elsewhere in the world; gasoline was relatively cheap for most of the period, alternative fuel vehicles (including diesel) did not develop and mining of offshore continental shelves and onshore oil fields was prohibited.
In 2006, the documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" produced by former US Vice President Al Gore scientifically and vividly described the huge impact of carbon dioxide emissions on climate change and global warming. Once this alarm-like work came out, it immediately rekindled Americans' attention to energy and environmental issues. During the 2008 presidential campaign, both Obama and McCain seized on this issue and advocated reducing CO2 emissions.
Looking at Obama's energy policy, we will find that it is almost the same as the version during his campaign. The main difference is that the new plan puts the creation of 5 million new green jobs at the top of a series of policy measures. The creation of these jobs will be achieved mainly through the investment of US$150 billion in the energy industry over the next ten years and the promotion of related companies. Of the $787 billion economic stimulus package signed by Obama in February this year, $62.5 billion was used to invest in green action plans and $2 billion was used for green tax stimulus projects.
Obama's energy and environment team is largely composed of environmentalists who are loyal to the environment and have little understanding of the oil and gas industry. This is a sharp change from the situation during the Bush administration. Most people in the group focused on environmental changes, such as how to improve energy efficiency and promote the use of renewable energy, such as Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Energy and Climate Change Assistant Carol Browne, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, and White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Nancy Suterre. In Congress, the balance of power among the various factions has also changed accordingly, with California legislators occupying major congressional committees and taking leadership roles. So far, most seats in the U.S. executive and legislative branches are firmly controlled by those who strongly support new energy and environmental programs.
The new energy plan and environmental policy require the strict implementation of CAFE standards. At the same time, a significant increase in taxes on gasoline will be included as an aspect of the cap control and carbon emissions trading policy. The National Association of Manufacturers predicts that the implementation of cap-and-trade policies will impose taxes on motor fuels of as much as 13-50%. An MIT research report estimates that the cost of gasoline will increase by 29% by 2015, and the new energy plan calls for using most of the revenue from cap-and-trade policies to compensate working-class Americans and encourage their purchases Green fuels, one-third of revenue will be used to fund research and development of new and renewable energy sources. Higher oil costs will drive the development of more fuel-efficient and efficient vehicles, to the detriment of middle-class American consumers. The National Association of Manufacturers and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology believe that provisions in the plan to increase the price of electricity and natural gas will increase energy costs during the current economic crisis and are likely to reduce future GDP growth.
From a time perspective, this energy policy can be described as ambitious, requiring the production of 1 million plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2015. In the good economic years from 1999 to 2007, the number of hybrid cars in the United States only increased from 20,000 to 350,000. Converting a huge number of vehicles to power energy not only takes time, but also costs and delivery times. From a historical perspective, Obama's New Energy Deal underestimated the expense, cost and implementation time to achieve the above goals.
Obama's energy and environment plan is bold, seeking to wean the United States off its heavy dependence on imported oil and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. While there will be some short-term gains from these new energy initiatives, stimulus packages and government executive orders, the contribution of alternative fuel vehicles is likely to be far less than planned. More importantly, the total carbon emission control and carbon emission trading policies will bring huge costs to consumers in the current economic downturn.
The United States must move towards new energy and environmental protection, but it must also seriously and prudently look at the costs of achieving the above goals, the setting of target deadlines, and a more balanced approach. After all, in the coming decades, the importance of oil and natural gas cannot be underestimated. They will still play an irreplaceable role as a major energy source.
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